SETA Foundation at Washington D.C.

The SETA Foundation at Washington D.C. presents

Turkish-Israeli Relations and Regional Dynamics after the Palmer Report

Monday, September 19, 2011

Event Summary
by Maggie Simon

Steven Cook began the discussion by asserting that the Palmer Report confirms the overarching Israeli argument about the justification for the Gaza blockade. The report declares the naval blockade part of a separate policy from the land border closure because the two were implemented at different times. Although this is convincing from a legal perspective, Cook contended, it is not so from a political perspective. He added that the Palmer Report’s conclusion ‘absolutely eviscerated’ the Turkish narrative about the flotilla. The speaker went on to say that the Turkish government reacted the way it did for domestic reasons, but noted that this alone was not the cause for the downgrade in Turkish-Israeli relations. Turkey and Israel have been traveling down this road from the beginning, Cook said, due to a number of structural and political reasons. He noted that Erdoğan and the AKP benefit from criticism of Israel, and claimed that the AKP wanted to alter relations with the Arab world but had to change its relations with Israel in order to do that. Cook contended that the current situation is not a crisis, just a conclusion for Turkish-Israeli relations. The US effort to repair those relations is a ‘fool’s errand’ according to the speaker, who stated that both Turkey and Israel are interested in posturing for domestic benefit. Cook ended by suggesting that the US will have to play referee in the eastern Mediterranean because irresponsible people will try to break the blockade.

The next speaker, Erol Cebeci, declared that the Turkish government’s demand for an apology was very clear, and noted that the Israeli government’s response was not a quick or hasty decision. He emphasized that currently the Middle East is not experiencing ‘ordinary times,’ going on to explain that in the 15 months since the flotilla, the level of instability in the region has increased, and the power equation has been rewritten. During the Cold War era, Cebeci explained, there were clear-cut alliances and distinctive implications for foreign policy, where security issues dominated policymaking. The speaker went on to say that after the Cold War, Turkish foreign policy could take into account other factors, but was also dealing with domestic security and the threat of the PKK. Cebeci explained that the 1990s were dominated by weak coalition governments, high inflation and new economic issues in Turkey, but, at the same time, Turkey and Israel perceived similar threats in the forms of radical Islam, Iran, and Syria. After the postmodern coup, the capture of Öcalan, and economic crisis, Cebeci stated, a new, strong government came to power in 2002. Cebeci contended that Turkey’s regional goals included political and economic integration with the Middle East, North Africa, the Balkans and the Caucasus, but that Israel had resisted this strategy and the ongoing regional changes, contributing to problematic relations.

The final speaker, Daniel Levy, began by offering analysis of the Palmer Commission and Report, which he deemed ‘transparently political.’ Noting that there has been ‘a degree of naivete’ in reading Israel, Levy contended that neither the US nor Turkey had read the Netanyahu government correctly and emphasized the internal reasons for Israeli decision making. Levy identified two phases of Israel’s regional position in which initially Israel worked with the non-Arab ‘periphery,’ including Turkey, Iran, and Ethiopia. This was followed by a ‘coalition of the super-periphery,’ in which Israel worked with the Greeks, Balkan states, and even the PKK. The loss of Turkey as an ally, the speaker contended, has ‘devastating effects,’ and leaves Israel without a regional strategy. Levy outlined three strategic options for Israel, which he referred to as the ‘porcupine,’ ‘iguana,’ and ‘caterpillar’ options. The ‘porcupine’ strategy Levy also referred to ‘Fortress Israel,’ which would be characterized by a hardline, right wing element and the denial of a two-state solution, compared to the ‘iguana’ strategy, which, similar to the Kadima policy, emphasizes blending in and adapting to the new regional surroundings. The third strategic option, which Levy dubbed the ‘caterpillar’ strategy, is characterized by maturity, granting full rights to Palestinians and ending the occupation. Levy ended by expressing concern that members of Congress may want to ‘up the ante’ and push Turkey into a farther realm.

During the question and answer portion, questions were raised regarding the effect of Islam on Turkish politics, the importance of Iran and Syria, and the role of the US in Turkish-Israeli relations. Cook stated that Turkey is not undergoing ‘Islamization’ although Israel wants to convince itself of that. Levy noted that religion in Turkey is not as important as Turkish democracy for the Middle East, adding that “Arab democracies will be less tolerant of Palestinian disenfranchisement” than Arab autocracies were. Additionally, other questions were raised in reference to Cyprus, the consequences of the Palestinian UN vote and the Arab world, and whether or not the separation of Turkey and Israel is inevitable. In response, Cook contended that the domestic politics of both Turkey and Israel do indeed make separation inevitable and leads both countries in different directions. Cebeci claimed that the Israeli government has not read the developments in the Middle East properly, and that the Israeli emphasis on security will ultimately lead to isolation. Levy noted that the results of the UN vote will take weeks or months to have a full effect. He added that the issue of dignity is at the heart of the Arab Spring, and this applies to both the domestic and international arenas.

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Daniel Levy is a Senior Research Fellow and Co-Director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation. He is also a Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation. He serves as a co-editor of The Middle East Channel, an online initiative of Foreign Policy Magazine. Mr. Levy received a Bachelors and Masters with Honors from King's College. He Levy was a founder of the J Street organization, the pro-peace pro-Israel movement that has become prominent since its launch in April 2008. Levy writes regularly for sites such as TPM Café, the Huffington Post, the Guardian, and ForeignPolicy.com and maintains an occasional blog at www.prospectsforpeace.com. He is a regular Middle East commentator on TV and radio, including with BBC, CNN, PBS, and Al Jazeera.

Steven Cook is Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He is an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy. Dr. Cook is the author of The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square and Ruling But Not Governing: The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey. He has published widely in a variety of foreign policy journals, opinion magazines, and newspapers including Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Wall Street Journal, the Journal of Democracy, The Weekly Standard, Slate, The New Republic Online, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, the International Herald Tribune, and Survival. Dr. Cook is also a frequent commentator on radio and tv. Dr. Cook holds a BA in international studies from Vassar College, an MA in international relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and both an MA and PhD in political science from the University of Pennsylvania.

Erol Cebeci is the Executive Director of the SETA Foundation at Washington DC. He has completed his undergraduate studies at Istanbul University and received an M.S. degree from Penn State University, both in Business Administration. Mr. Cebeci attended a Ph.D. program first in Managerial Economics then in Ecological Economics at Rensselaer Institute of Technology (RPI). He taught several undergraduate courses on Economics and Public Finance as an Adjunct Professor at RPI. He established and run private companies in business consulting and international trade. Mr. Cebeci has served two terms as a member of Turkish Parliament. He also served as a member of NATO Parliamentary Assembly, first member and then as the Chairman of the Turkish Delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Counsel of Europe. While in politics, he has mainly worked on human rights issues, security and defense issues, foreign policy, and European politics.

Kadir Ustun is the Research Director at the SETA Foundation at Washington DC. He received his M.A. degree in History from Bilkent University. He is currently pursuing a doctoral degree in Middle East Studies at Columbia University. Mr. Ustun has taught numerous undergraduate classes on history, politics, culture, and art in the Islamic World as well as Western political thought at Columbia University and George Mason University. He is currently the Assistant Editor of Insight Turkey, an academic journal published by SETA Foundation. His research interests include civil-military relations, social and military modernization in the Middle East, US-Turkey relations, and Turkish foreign policy.