The SETA Foundation at Washington DC presents
Turkey’s June 2011 Elections: What’s Next?
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Panelists:Steven Cook
Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Burhanettin Duran
Chair, Political Science and International Relations Department, Istanbul Sehir University
Moderator:
Nuh Yilmaz
Director, The SETA Foundation
Download Turkey Elections Fact Sheet 2011
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Event Summary
The discussion was moderated by Nuh Yılmaz of the SETA Foundation, who began by highlighting the important aspects of the Turkish election. He noted that voter turnout was 86.7%, meaning that there were about 44 million voters, and that the representation in Parliament was close to 95%.
The first speaker was Burhanettin Duran of Istanbul Şehir University, who spoke primarily on the domestic implications of the elections. He contended that this election was particularly important because the AKP is the first party since 1946 to form a government in three consecutive elections while increasing their votes, and because the AKP failed to achieve their goal of the 330 seats in Parliament. Duran stated that the focus of this election had shifted from ideology to real issues, and that voters were seeking stability and continuity. The speaker contended, however, that the major challenges facing the AKP are Erdoğan’s own uncertain political future, reaching a consensus on the Kurdish issue and the new constitution, and whether or not Erdoğan can leave behind a party that will thrive in his absence. Duran went on to discuss how the AKP must work with other parties in order to create a new constitution and to find a solution to the Kurdish question. Duran also discussed the CHP’s performance in the election, noting that they had received their best result in over three decades, even if it was below expectation. Duran ended his talk by discussing the regional implications of the Turkish election. He contended that the Arab Spring had made Turkey more influential because “Turkey is the only consolidated democracy in the region.” He also emphasized that this election had provided Turkey with a new mandate for regional influence.
The next speaker was Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations. He primarily discussed the effect of the Turkish elections on foreign policy. Cook declared that the election was an “impressive victory for the AKP,” saying that it provided a strong mandate for a new constitution. According to Cook, the changes in US-Turkish relations are a result of Turkey shifting from being a client state to a partner or even a competitor with the US. Cook contended that the three major determinants of Turkish foreign policy are Turkey’s economic ambitions to become a trading state, the process of becoming a more open and democratic society, and global changes overall. The speaker discussed how the world is “still feeling the effects of the Cold War,” that there is a myth regarding the “Golden Age of US-Turkish relations,” and that Washington sees the prospect of a new Turkish constitution as “a step forward.” Regarding the Arab Spring, Cook declared that both the US and Turkey are experiencing a kind of “cognitive dissonance” as they are “watching the region rewire itself.” He contended that the AKP had been saying that they had ‘special insight’ into the Middle East because of a common religion and historical involvement, but that, in reality, Turkey’s “genius in the Arab world is wrapped up in authoritarian regimes.” Cook declared that the uprisings in the Arab have more to do with the Arabs themselves and less to do with Turkey, although Turkey is well-placed in the region to become influential as an economic engine.
Yılmaz then posed questions to the speakers and took questions from the audience. Regarding the new constitution, Duran contended that the best option for the AKP is to cooperate with the CHP because both are committed to a democratic, civilian constitution, and that the two have close positions regarding the Kurdish question. In response to a question of Turkey’s status as a ‘client state,’ Cook stated that US-Turkish relations are going through a process of normalization and maturation, and that, ultimately, Turkey and the US are two countries independently seeking their own interests. When asked about the issue of journalists in prison, Duran stated that most journalists in prison in Turkey are not there due to their writing, but due to their ties with terrorist organizations. In response, Cook claimed that, considering the AKP has been in power for many years now and could have changed the law, that there is no satisfying answer to the question. When asked about Turkish-Israeli relations, neither Cook nor Duran expected to see much improvement in the estranged relationship. Duran noted that the Mavi Marmara incident has become a domestic issue to be used to certain political advantages. The next question asked about the possible role of the Turkish civil society in the unrest in Syria. Duran said that Turkey has a robust civil society, but that Turkey has tried unsuccessfully to influence Assad to enact reforms, and that because of the dangers inherent to military intervention there is no clear solution. Cook claimed that the Syrian unrest shows the limit of Turkey’s influence but that if there is a post-Assad Syria then there may be the opportunities for Turkish NGOs.
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Steven A. Cook is Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He is an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy. Dr. Cook is the author of The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square and Ruling But Not Governing: The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey. He has published widely in a variety of foreign policy journals, opinion magazines, and newspapers including Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Wall Street Journal, the Journal of Democracy, The Weekly Standard, Slate, The New Republic Online, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, the International Herald Tribune, and Survival. Dr. Cook is also a frequent commentator on radio and tv. Dr. Cook holds a BA in international studies from Vassar College, an MA in international relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and both an MA and PhD in political science from the University of Pennsylvania.
Burhanettin Duran is Associate Professor and chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at İstanbul Şehir University. Mr. Duran studied at Boğaziçi University before receiving his M.A. and PhD in Political Science and Public Administration from Bilkent University in Turkey. In addition to working as a Research Assistant at Bilkent University and Sakarya University, Dr. Duran has taught in the Department of International Relations at Sakarya University and İstanbul Şehir University. Dr. Duran's research interests include Islamism, Turkish political life, history of Turkish-Islamic political thought, and Turkish foreign policy.